After this standardization process, we take a mean average of these daily entries to present the polling average. In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire; Trump won Arizona and Wisconsin. Rocha said Democrats have not been sensitive enough to the economic hardship that has affected the area — and that has impacted Latinx voters particularly hard. New CBS News/YouGov polls show President Donald Trump is in trouble in three states he won in 2016. Of course, polling isn’t prophecy. The question is whether his brand of smash-mouth, feed-the-base politics has gone too far — or whether there is still room to grow his base. Trump led in just three of them. Last month, for the first time in at least a decade, more Florida Democrats cast primary election ballots than Republicans. As CNN’s John Harwood points out, Biden is also quite a bit more popular than Clinton was in 2016, while the majority of Americans still dislike Trump. — Tim Alberta, It’s been so long since Minnesota voted Republican in a presidential election that many Democrats suspected a head fake when Trump first boasted about his intent to compete there. According to CNN, just 13 percent of registered voters either haven’t decided or are still open to changing their minds, and a Quinnipiac University poll from earlier this month found that only 3 percent of likely voters were still undecided. Within each of these swing states, the roadmap ahead for President Donald Trump and Joe Biden is clear. Specifically, a New York Times/Siena College poll taken from September 8 to 10 shows Biden retaining his lead with likely voters in four important states: Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. But that doesn’t guarantee the Democratic candidate victory. As my colleague Li Zhou has explained previously, polls only really “capture public sentiment during a moment in time,” and things could still change, especially with three presidential debates yet to come. And Trump is a president whose support has been notoriously difficult for pollsters to survey. The individual campaigns have also revealed the places they are prioritizing through staffing, resource allocation, TV and radio advertising and candidate visits. Available for everyone, funded by readers. — Holly Otterbein, Republicans here admit they’re battling intense energy on the Democratic side. CBS reports Biden narrowly leads Trump by 3 percentage points in Arizona, and according to the New York Times poll, Biden is up by 5 percentage points in Wisconsin. Experts generally agree that the key swing states to focus on this year are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—all of which were won by Trump in 2016. Looking beyond the particulars of any one poll, polling for the 2020 presidential race has been largely stable. Race, class and educational attainment have always played pivotal roles in presidential voting. Sign up for the Our polling average is a 14-day rolling average: on any day, we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results. Still, while national polls have generated a portrait of Biden holding a commanding lead, it’s something of a mirage. — Elena Schneider, Trump won Michigan in 2016 by a total of just 10,704 votes out of some 4.7 million cast, a lightning-in-a-bottle victory over a fatally flawed opponent. Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in six key 2020 swing states, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll. Arizona and North Carolina were also added due to what they might tell us about a shifting electoral landscape – they could emerge as vital new swing states this year. To win the state, he said, Biden will have to present a clear plan of how his policy vision will help those who need work, and income, right now. So there’s astronomical unemployment there.”. Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victor regardless of the margin of victory, a handful swing states will probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners. The selection of these swing states is based on a variety of factors — polling, demography, past and recent election history, voter registration, interviews with state and local party officials, strategists and pollsters.
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